
Primetme presenter Miriam O'Callaghan with three of the main party leaders (from left) Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail, Enda Kenny of Fine Gael and Eamon Gilmore of the Labour Party in the RTE studios beforte they took part in the RTE Leaders Debate. Pic: Leon Farrell/Photocall Ireland/PA Wire
Irish politics is about to undergo a radical and possibly irrevocable transformation.
The polls indicate that this week’s general election will dramatically alter the shape of the Dáil. While Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny looks certain to be the next Taoiseach, the shape of Ireland’s next government is far less apparent.
Leinster House will see many new faces after this poll. Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin and independents will all increase their representation on the green chamber benches.
A Fine Gael/Labour coalition is the most likely result, according to the bookies, but fundamental philosophical differences have emerged between the parties during the campaign that will be hard to reconcile after the vote.
Fine Gael may attract enough support to govern on their own, or with the help of independents.
But the fascinating possibility of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition has not been entirely discounted. According to bookmaker Paddy Power, this eventuality – once considered unthinkable – is as likely as either a minority or majority Fine Gael government to come about.
On the face of it, such an alliance makes much more sense than a Fine Gael/Labour coalition. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are the Holden and Ford of Irish politics.
Historically, loyalty to these political brands has been driven by tribal, rather than philosophical, considerations.
Notwithstanding the Civil War origins of the parties – Fine Gael has been seen as more hawkish on economic and ‘law and order’ matters, more liberal on social issues, less ‘republican’ and more secular. Fianna Fáil is seen as less urban, more conscious of social justice and more inclined to be influenced by Catholic Church doctrine on social policy.
But on the political spectrum, the two parties sit side-by-side on the starboard side of centre.
The emergence of a FG/FF coalition would recalibrate Irish politics along more familiar European lines. Labour would provide a robust opposition with a philosophical different view.
Most European countries have a clear left-right divide and power swings, like a pendulum, depending on prevailing economic or social circumstances. The debate is bedded down in philosophy, not tribal history.
Almost all the major European democracies, including Britain, now have coalition governments. It would buck the trend if Ireland were to hand Fine Gael power in its own right.
While a possible coalition between the old foes makes sense on paper, it does not take account of the political realities on the ground.
The biggest impediment may be the self-imposed toxification of the Fianna Fáil brand. Would Fine Gael voters be able to stomach a Fianna Fáil role in government?
FF would be foolish not to grasp such an offer, if it comes. The polls are pointing to an electoral train wreck for the once imperious warriors of destiny. The change of leader – from Brian Cowen to Michéal Martin – has failed to stem the tide of undiluted venom towards the party.
If anything, voters have been further incensed by the undiluted cowardice of so many former ministers and backbenchers who have skulked away with their parliamentary pensions without facing the electorate.
Irish voters will choose who they want and we will watch with interest to see what transpires later this week. However, what the nation needs now, above all, is stable government. That means a government with a clear majority in the Dáil.
But political power was never such a poisoned chalice. The next administration will have an enormous responsibility to find a way out of the current economic maelstrom. It will be forced to make unbearably difficult decisions.
It will be expected to honour the country’s massive debt commitments while providing decent services; to create jobs and stem emigration while fending off calls from Europe for a hike in its corporations tax; to create an environment of fiscal rectitude and robust prudential governance while encouraging the banks to offer credit; to redefine the image of the country in the eyes of the world to undo the damage that has been done.
It is difficult to see any of these objectives being achieved by a minority Fine Gael government with the support of self-serving independents. Nor will it be achieved by a single party Fine Gael government with a narrow majority, vulnerable to the first by-election that comes along.
A Fine Gael/Labour coalition should deliver a comfortable majority in the chamber and may provide the best result. Labour’s social justice imperatives would soften Fine Gael’s economic rationalism and ensure that – in the tough period to come – the pain is shared between the haves and the have-nots.
But the implications – symbolic and otherwise – of a Fianna Fail/Fine Gael government are fascinating to consider.
Working together, these two parties would provide the country with a solid centre-right government and expose the increasingly irrelevant tribal point-scoring that masquerades as political debate in Ireland.
Above all, it would be an important symbolic end to the painful shame of the civil war.
These two entities were once united – ironically under the banner of Sinn Féin – and contested the 1918 election together, winning over 70 per cent of the seats (over 90 per cent in what is now the Republic even though the Labour party did not contest the election) before the disastrous split over the treaty.
Now, almost a century later, it would be historically appropriate if they could reunite as a coalition in the national interest as Ireland faces this debt-fuelled crisis.
We shall see.
